本文摘要:The new iPhone is sure to shatter previous sales records. It may also prove the moment to dump Apple shares. 新的iPhone一定会超越之前的销售纪录。除此之外,它也警告我们,有可能到了售出苹果(Apple)股票的时候了。


The new iPhone is sure to shatter previous sales records. It may also prove the moment to dump Apple shares. 新的iPhone一定会超越之前的销售纪录。除此之外,它也警告我们,有可能到了售出苹果(Apple)股票的时候了。Each new iPhone has sold as many units as all previous generations combined, Apple executives have joked internally according to recent trial testimony. And it isnt crazy to believe exponential growth can continue for at least one more. Combine pent-up demand among existing iPhone users looking to upgrade, with the possibility that the new model will finally be compatible with the worlds largest carrier, China Mobile, and investors can expect explosive results. 据前不久的庭审证词表明,苹果高管在公司内部打趣时曾说道,每款新的iPhone的销量都是之前所有几代产品的销量之和。

指出最少另一款iPhone的销量也将呈现这种快速增长模式并非不切实际的点子。那些想要让手里iPhone更新换代的用户具备潜在市场需求,再行再加新机型有可能最后将与全球仅次于无线运营商中国移动(China Mobile)的网络相容,基于这两个因素,投资者可以期望新的iPhone出现异常疯狂的销售情况。But the device setting those records is itself likely to be just an incremental upgrade over its predecessor, the iPhone 4S. Indeed, if the latest version of Apples mobile operating system is any guide, the newest iPhone may not look that much different from smartphones Apple sold over three years ago. Granted, the screen is expected to be larger and the device thinner. But the actual user experience isnt expected to be very different. 但建构这项纪录的新款iPhone本身却有可能只是iPhone 4S的“增量升级”版。

实质上,如果从苹果最新版移动操作系统来辨别的话,那么新款iPhone有可能与苹果过去三年来卖出的智能手机并无过于大差异。当然,预计屏幕不会变小,机身不会增厚,但实际用户体验有可能会有过于大有所不同。In one sense, that is good since a reason the iPhone is so popular is that it just works, notes analyst Neil Mawston of research firm Strategy Analytics. The hardware, software and Apple services like iTunes are tightly integrated and easy to use, making the device appealing to a huge swath of non-techie users. That is opposed to, say, devices running Googles Android operating system, where the ability to customize can complicate the user experience. 市场研究公司Strategy Analytics的分析师莫斯顿(Neil Mawston)认为,从某种程度上说道,这是件好事,因为iPhone如此热门的原因之一是它很好用。

iPhone的硬件、软件和苹果iTunes等服务融为一体,使用方便,因此大量并非热衷电子产品的用户也为之著迷。与之构成对比的是配备谷歌(Google)安卓(Android)操作系统的手机,这些产品的自定义功能可能会使用户体验变得复杂。In another sense, sticking to the iPhones traditional design is a problem, giving rivals a chance to jump ahead with new features. The Windows Phone operating system that Nokia uses has live tiles that display useful information or photos directly on the devices home screen, not just dummy icons you have to touch to launch apps. The camera technology in Nokias latest device is also likely to be superior to Apples. And Nokia is showing its engineering prowess with, for instance, a touch screen that should work for users wearing winter gloves. Such subtle improvements have typically been the hallmark of devices designed under Steve Jobs. 从另一个层面来看,iPhone在设计上坚决回头传统路线也有问题,这不会给竞争对手一个发售新功能并领先苹果的机会。

诺基亚(Nokia)用于的Windows Phone操作系统有可必要在手机主屏上表明简单信息或图片的“活动瓷片”(live tiles),而某种程度是必需通过触碰才能启动应用程序的一个个图标。诺基亚近期手机使用的照相机技术有可能也比苹果先进设备。而且诺基亚目前正在展出其设计实力,如用户带着保暖手套也要用的触摸屏等。


这类微小之处的改良历年来都是乔布斯(Steve Jobs)生前在任时苹果产品所具备的特色。Apple has other powerful advantages, including a huge ecosystem of apps. Android also has plenty, but Windows Phone lags far behind. Users that have downloaded lots of apps, not to mention other media from the iTunes store, may find themselves locked into using an iPhone. But if rivals surpass the iPhone in other crucial respects, it becomes harder for Apple to justify the price premium it charges wireless carriers to sell its devices. 此外,苹果也有其它强劲的优势,还包括极大的应用于生态系统。安卓也有很多应用软件,但Windows Phone在这方面则相比之下领先。那些iTunes了很多应用软件(更加不用说道从iTunes商店iTunes其它媒体内容)的用户可能会发现自己已必不可少iPhone了。

但如果竞争对手在其它关键领域打破iPhone,苹果向无线运营商证明其高价位归属于合理范畴的可玩性就不会减小。Not long ago, Nokia and BlackBerry looked nearly as impregnable as Apple does today. Apples dominant ecosystem should prevent it ever suffering a similar decline. Yet the fact that it finds itself in a hit-driven business is perhaps good reason its shares trade for just 12 times earnings for the fiscal year ending September 2013 despite growing faster than any other company in the SP 500 in 2011, ex-acquisitions. 旋即以前,诺基亚和黑莓(BlackBerry)也曾与如今的苹果一样,具有看起来完全固若金汤的地位。

苹果所主导的应用于生态系统应当不会避免它重蹈黑莓的覆辙。不过,苹果专门从事的是一个必须大量人气的行业,这或许就很好地说明了为何该公司根据截至2013年9月财年预期收益计算出来的市盈率仅有为12倍,尽管苹果的增长速度多达2011年标普500指数(SP 500)任何一家成分股公司(不还包括再次发生并购的公司)。

Once upon a time, Apple revolutionized cellphones by turning them into hand-held computers. Resorting to evolutionary design changes would give rivals an opening. 曾几何时,苹果革命性地将手机改变为掌上电脑。而在设计方面采行“增量式转变”将让苹果的竞争对手有机可乘。

The next iPhone should again propel Apples stock and its sales. That may be the time for Apple shareholders to take their money off the table. 下一款iPhone应当不会推展苹果股票及销售再行上新台阶,也许这也是苹果股东驭好赚到的钱走路的时候了。